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Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History download epub

by David Elias


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Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History. David Malpass, chief international strategist, Bear Stearns. Do you believe in free markets? The used book market values this book at . 1. From the Inside Flap. It's provocative, controversial, contrarian and a total crock.

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for Dow 40,000 : Strategies for . History & Military Books Hardcover 1950-1999 Publication Year. United States History Hardcover Antiquarian & Collectible Books. History Hardcover Historical Antiquarian & Collectible Books.

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To profit from the strongest bull market in history, investors will need to take advantage of the inevitable . Call David Elias an optimist.

To profit from the strongest bull market in history, investors will need to take advantage of the inevitable downturns, and this text offers advice on just that. Investors already have accustomed themselves to much grander annual returns. However, Elias, an investment adviser, might strike some readers as a bit too cheery.

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Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History predicts that the Dow will reach 40,000 in 2016. Author David Elias, who runs his own money-management firm in Williamsville, . takes an upbeat view while making a lowball forecast

Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History predicts that the Dow will reach 40,000 in 2016. takes an upbeat view while making a lowball forecast. All it will take to reach his target is a 9% average annual gain in stocks. That's two percentage points below the average. Charles W. Kadlec, author of Dow 100,000: Fact or Fiction, is not making all that much bolder of a prediction.

Elias D (1999) Dow 40, 000: strategies for profiting from the greatest bull market in history. McGraw-Hill, New YorkGoogle Scholar. Enders W, Granger C (1998) Unit-root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rates

Elias D (1999) Dow 40, 000: strategies for profiting from the greatest bull market in history. Enders W, Granger C (1998) Unit-root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rates. J Bus Econ Stat 16:304–311CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Enders W, Lee J (2009) Testing for a unit root with a nonlinear fourier function. University of AlabamaGoogle Scholar. Ferson W, Sarkissian S, Simin TT (2003) Spurious regressions in financial economics? J Finance 58(4):1393–1413CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market is a book by James K. Glassman . Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting From the Greatest Bull Market in History (Hardcover). Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett. It was published in 1999 before the dot-com bubble burst. I remember the authors were invited to all kinds of TV shows with this book.

Электронная книга "Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time", John Boik. Эту книгу можно прочитать в Google Play Книгах на компьютере, а также на устройствах Android и iOS. Выделяйте текст, добавляйте закладки и делайте заметки,. Выделяйте текст, добавляйте закладки и делайте заметки, скачав книгу "Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time" для чтения в офлайн-режиме.

Explains the fundamentals of blue-chip stock investing, including historical events leading to today's strong market, the effects of the Baby Boomer generation on future markets, and forecasts for the behavior of different market sectors

Comments: (7)

Vojar
Obviously dated given it was written 20 years ago. However, it's interesting to see how much of what author said actually transpired and what didn't; what predictions didn't meet expectations and which ones were exceeded. Also, not to mention all those events that occurred which impacted the stock market, and which even the author at the time could have no way of knowing.

A great time capsule to remind us of how far we've come. And with the Dow Jones over 26,000 as of this writing, even after two significant sell-offs over two decades, we'll surely achieve 40k in our life times if not way more than that!
Owomed
The best thing that can be said about this book is that it made an even bolder prediction than its near-contemporary book "Dow 36,000" did. As I write this some 17 years after its publication, I can also note that it's almost halfway to reaching its fulfillment. (Last Friday, 12/23/16, the Dow reached 19,933.) The problem is that David Elias didn't remember to tell us that it would take the Dow seventeen years to get halfway to the book's prediction, and, who knows how many decades before it ever reaches 40,000?

So, why read it? Well, occasionally it's helpful for all of us to be reminded of Tulipmania and other bubbles throughout history that have tricked people into thinking that something or other will keep going up and up and up in value, never to come crashing down. And that even smart people (for I have no doubt that Mr. Elias has a fairly high IQ) can get caught up in the frenzy and forget that nothing on this earth can continue to expand forever.
Shaktizragore
This book,written in 1998, is very much like the 1999 books by Kadlec and Glassman and Hassett,which failed to realize that the corporate profits being reported by many corporations in the 1994-1999 period were simply faked.The books were cooked,just like they were cooked in the late 1920's.The major prediction in this book is that the Dow will be at 40,000 in the year 2016.The projected increase in stock market prices predicted by Elias,theoretically based on future expected profits,which were themselves based on an extrapolation of existing realized profits that, in fact,were based on accounting gimmicks and fraud,could not possibly be realized.The best book to read in this area is the 3rd edition(1996)of Kindleberger's Manias,Panics,and Crashes.The best short piece to read is chapter 12 of J M Keynes's The General Theory of Employment,Interest and Money.Elias's ignorance of basic market fundamentals,an analysis of which convinced the 3 wise men(Buffett,Soros,Lynch)to liquidate their portfolios of stocks between September,1999 and March,2000 ,means that his "analysis"is fundamentally flawed by his ideological belief in some of the metaphysical speculations of supplyside"economics".Elias appears to confuse investment in plant,factories,and equipment(located in the USA)with speculation in the stocks of companies based on fraudulent accounting practices. The Elias book's prediction is not as bad as the Glassman and Hassett book or the Kadlec mess.Elias postulates that there would be major technological breakthroughs in this time period that would lead to major innovations creating major increases in productivity generated economic growth.If such technical advances do not occur it follows that Dow 40,000 in 2016 will not occur.A Dow 40,000 is possible in 2040-2050 if the massive,necessary spending on needed public infrastructure,badly neglected in the USA since 1981,is implemented.The bill is about 20 Trillion.This would set off a genuine boom and not a supplyside bubble.
Beabandis
I really didn't like the premise of this book very much, that stocks would continue to grow at about the historical rate of 9 percent or higher. The title reflects the author's forecast that the Dow will reach 40,000 on or before 2016. Although a lot of reasons are given (6 chapters worth), I found myself unconvinced one way or the other. I mainly felt that I didn't care what the Dow does in 2016. I don't plan to buy the Dow stocks. I don't plan to buy the Dogs of the Dow (those that have the highest dividend yield at the beginning of each year). I don't even think the level of the Dow tells me very much about the market.
If you do care about where the Dow will be in the future, the arguments relate to the historical growth rate of the Dow, the growth of foreign economies stimulating demand for U.S. exports, the need for more privatized investing for Baby Boomer retirements, the need for the government to spend less money when the Boomers retire, the recent tendency to have lower inflation and interest rates, and the likelihood that technology will drive up productivity.
Of course, to really know what the Dow will do, you need to forecast which stocks will be in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Every time one of them gets into trouble or is acquired, a new, faster growing company is added. That's a major source of the growth of the Dow.
In the second part of the book, the author builds investment strategies. These are basically all rest on the observation that the change in the price of a stock has been 31 percent from the market, 12 percent from the industry you are in, 37 percent from the industry segment you are in, and 20 percent from which company you are. That analysis is accurate to this point.
The author then concludes that the top sectors through 2016 will be Capital Goods Technology stocks (computers and software companies), Health Care, and Financial Services. Concentrated portfolios of a few large cap stocks are then suggested as a way to outperform the market.
If you have read any of my other reviews of investment books, you will know that hardly anyone ever outperforms the market . . . even for 5 years. It is ridiculous to provide these portfolios and suggest that people buy them. If they work out, it will mostly be by chance.
If you want some good investment ideas for stock market investing, I suggest you read John Bogle's Common Sense on Mutual Funds. If you really want to try to beat the market based on the sector analysis approach, ChangeWave Investing is the book for you.
If you use this book as a background primer on economic issues in global business, it will serve as a stimulant to your thinking. If you use it as an investing guide, I fear for your money.
Read more about investing methods, banish your stalled thinking, and find an investment style that fits your personal preferences for being active or inactive, at risk or little at risk, and volatile or relatively nonvolatile.
Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History download epub
Investing
Author: David Elias
ISBN: 0071351280
Category: Business & Money
Subcategory: Investing
Language: English
Publisher: McGraw-Hill (June 26, 1999)
Pages: 209 pages